Power Transition Theory and Solar Energy

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How the Energy Battle is Going to Play Out:

In International Relations and Affairs there is one predominant theory that both frightens and fascinates those who come across it. The Power Transition Theory in International Affairs attempts to categorically trace the historical outcomes of different global and regional shifts of power between two or more states. The theory, at its basis, finds that in the majority of cases, as one power declines and another power rises, conflict is inevitable. How this conflict presents itself is the subject of much debate. In the Cold War between Soviet Union and the United States, that conflict was predominantly economic and political, with some aspects of ground warfare.

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This theory is currently being used to analyze how the United States is dealing with the rise of China.

In this post-globalization world, the majority of actions that affect global affairs have to do with non-state actors. Non-state actors are both political actors; unaffiliated militant groups (Terrorists and militias) and economic actors; multinational corporations and transactions between states and corporations, to name a few.

The Energy Crisis:

In the next few years the world will see a shift in the public image of renewable and non-renewable energies alike. This shift in both public opinion and access to new sources of energy will be the result of an intense battle that even now is raging. This battle, similar to that of the cold war, or the looming economic shift that may be a result of a second world superpower on the rise, can be explained through the use of the Power Transition Theory.

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The two major actors in this battle will not, as historically seen, be states, but rather the alternate forms of energy sources available to the general public. The two major sources that will be either condemned or applauded, depending on your political background will be coal and solar energy. This analysis is based around the current availability of coal and its ability to generate cleaner energy through new sources of refinement. The solar choice is difficult because the entire field of renewable energy technology is expanding exponentially. However, given the recent breakthrough in energy storage technology by both Toyota and Tesla, its poised to overtake other sources of renewable energy as highlighted in a recent post.

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The United States, as of 2013, receives roughly 90.5% of its energy from non-renewable sources. However, the growth in output from solar energy doubled in the United States from 2013 to 2014. Granted, diminishing returns shows that figure to be exponentially more difficult to achieve as the sector increases in size, just as 200% of 1 is 2 and 200% of 2 is 4. That growth is inherently unsustainable long term, as reflected in the graph below.

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However, that growth shows no signs of slowing down in terms of short term. What this means is that while you're not going to see an overnight change in your neighborhood's roofs surface area solar panel usage, over the next ten years you are going to see a lot more about solar energy. The reason being is that non-renewable sources are scared, and for good reason. As expressed in a past post of mine, energy consumption at its basis is a zero-sum gain.

Realistically speaking, everything that the renewable energy sector gains is taken away from the non-renewable profits. This isn't a huge problem now, the price of oil is staggeringly low, but the law of diminishing returns can also be used to assess the access to oil. To meet world energy demands, new, expensive ways to access oil are becoming more common. As can be seen though to access these reserves is size-ably more expensive as the historical alternatives. Oil, gas, and coal being non-renewable are eventually not going to be feasible in terms of energy demand. This growing demand on a limited resource will just serve to expiate the process of consumption, and as the supply of these resources will fall, the demand will rise. In this realistic and unavoidable future, the answer lies in renewable energy.

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On top of all of this the current price of oil is unsustainable. Its a mixture of political retribution of the country of Iran from Saudi Arabia and the United States for Iran's Nuclear Energy research, and the rise of the American fracking industry. This attempt at strangling United States oil and Iran's Nuclear energy is costing Saudi Arabia an incredible amount of money and is at its heart a very short term operation.

So What Does This Mean for the Average American Consumer?

The price of gas is going to go up. There's no doubt in that. Unfortunately, that's simply the nature of a non-renewable source of energy, in contrast however, the price of solar energy and other renewable energy sources is plummeting year by year.

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Here's the reflective price for that energy:

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Translation: If you buy solar panels today you will have the most return for your investment in solar history. The same cannot be said for non-renewable sources. Unfortunately, unlike solar energy, the future for fossil fuels doesn't look to bright.

A showdown is going to happen between the powerful coal, oil, and gas corporations and that of renewable energy. At the end of the day, with this type of situation, the future is clear. Renewable energy is happening, for the benefit of mankind as a whole, and their respective wallets. 

For more information on how/why you should switch to solar energy, go here.